THE nation's depressed residential property market is tipped to show signs of recovery over the next three years, but the rates of growth in the mining states will far outstrip the performance of the housing sector in the non-mining states. According to a BIS Shrapnel report to be released today into the predicted growth of the residential property market from 2012-15, house prices in Perth, Brisbane, Sydney and Darwin will start to "gain traction" from next year, with the sector to improve further in 2014 and 2015. The forecast gain in median house prices over the three years to June 2015 is expected to be as high as 22 per cent in Perth, while residential properties in Brisbane (20 per cent), Sydney (17 per cent), and Darwin (15 per cent) are also expected to record double-digit price growth over the same period. However, house prices in the capital cities of non-mining states will remain sluggish in the short term. Median values in Canberra are forecast to rise by just 1 per cent over the next three years, while Melbourne (3 per cent), Hobart (5 per cent) and Adelaide (9 per cent) aren't tipped to fare much better. BIS Shrapnel senior manager and study author, Angie Zigomanis, said while consumers remained nervous about the general economy, the next three years could see a surge in the number of first-home buyers entering the market. "The improvement in affordability from lower interest rates may stabilise house prices in this environment. However, without any supply pressures, median house prices in Melbourne, Adelaide, Hobart and Canberra are forecast to show little change and decline in real terms over the next three years," Mr Zigomanis said. "The increased investment and spending in the mining and related sectors of the economy should increasingly flow through to the domestically focused non-mining sectors of the economy, leading to stronger employment growth. "The increased confidence is forecast to encourage more first-home buyers into the market and existing occupiers to upgrade. Investors should also increasingly enter the market once there is evidence that prices have bottomed out, and will also be supported by solid rental growth."